Climate change in Europe: what impact on Neanderthals?

After being the dominant human species in Europe for over 200,000 years, the Neanderthal fossil population disappeared around 40,000 years ago. Competition with Homo sapiens, who arrived in Europe at the same time, is often cited as the reason for this extinction, but other causes could also have been involved. One proposal that is increasingly being suggested concerns the fundamental role of climate change. To test the hypothesis of the effect of climate change, scientists have modelled the evolution over time of ecological niches (i.e. the set of physical-environmental conditions) favourable to Neanderthals in Europe, using paleoenvironmental reconstructions and eco-cultural niche modelling.

Using paleoenvironmental data, they then reconstructed¹ the niches favorable to the Neanderthal population over time. Statistical comparisons² of the evolution of these favorable areas for Neanderthal life over time demonstrate that, after a strong initial environmental change, vast areas highly favorable to Neanderthal occupation persisted during the most recent periods (between -64,000 and -50,000 years ago). The theoretically favorable space available to Neanderthals at the time of their decline has not diminished: the same areas remain favorable over time. In conclusion, the change in the climatic environment of Europe as a whole was probably not the main cause of the disappearance of the fossil Neanderthal population.

This fundamental result³ is part of the still open question as to the causes of the decline or displacement of the Neanderthal population towards southern Europe during prehistoric climatic changes.