From political commitment to populist mechanics

On 6 January 2020, just hours before the assault on the Capitol, Donald J. Trump roused his supporters by identifying a “corrupt" elite as the enemy - an elite, deaf to the interests of the “real people…, that built this nation".

This rhetoric encapsulates the essence of populism: a sharp opposition between “the people” and a powerful minority, “the elite”, who are cast as scapegoats. Such discourse is often accompanied by attacks on checks and balances—particularly the press and the judiciary.

The populist wave is global. From the United States to Europe, and across Latin America, populism is on the rise. But how can this momentum be explained?

According to economist Massimo Morelli, a specialist in political economy, and his colleagues, one key factor is at play: the collapse of trust in institutions.

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Dialogues économiques is a digital journal published by the Aix-Marseille School of Economics (AMU, CNRS, EHESS, Centrale Méditerranée). A gateway between academic research and society, Dialogues économiques provides all citizens with the keys to economic reasoning. Articles are published every two weeks.

As trust erodes, populism grows

The authority of public institutions relies on the trust of citizens. This belief in their moral and professional integrity underpins adherence to rules and forms the basis of institutional legitimacy. Without trust, institutions falter.

In February 2024, only 22% of Americans reported trusting the federal government — a historic low. This mistrust also extends to the judiciary, the education system, and the media. It stems both from economic insecurity (globalisation, financial crises, automation) and from a sense of cultural decline or displacement.

As this trust erodes, voters increasingly demand certainty. In this sense, it is not the leaders who initiate populism, but the voters who demand it — as if expressing a new collective state of mind. Faced with broken trust, voters favour firm commitments, simplified messages, and no-nonsense politics: clear, immediate promises, without shades of grey.

In this context, the most "committed" candidates — in the sense of offering firm, uncompromising pledges — are the ones who stand out. For Massimo Morelli and his colleagues Luca Bellodi, Antonio Nicolò and Paolo Robert, this phenomenon gives rise to what they call a “politics of commitment”: a politics in which compromise is seen as betrayal and counter-powers are viewed with suspicion. The aim is to break away from a system “captured” by elites, by explicitly pledging to act for the people.