Droughts, heat waves, or extreme rainfall, the Andean and tropical regions are among the first to be affected by the uncertainties of climate change. In the face of increasingly unpredictable weather conditions, Peruvian agriculture is under pressure. A team of economists is using new data to measure the impact of these weather shocks and its negative consequences on Peruvian agricultural production.
Juicy mangoes, avocados, coffee, cacao, quinoa: our European market stalls are filled with tropical delights. But before reaching us, these crops slowly ripened under the Andean sun or in the shade of lush forests. Harvested by anonymous hands, they then embark on a long transcontinental journey. Today, this cycle is under threat as climate change disrupts agricultural calendars.
In Peru, agriculture heavily relies on Andean and Amazonian communities. Armed with their traditional knowledge, they practice terrace cultivation, community water management, and seed conservation. This way of life has allowed Peru to preserve exceptional biodiversity: more than 3,000 varieties of potatoes are cultivated there. The country is home to a wealth of ecosystems, leading to a wide variety of agricultural techniques depending on the region. On the coast, desert areas are used for intensive irrigated farming, while the Andean mountains and Amazon rainforest are cultivated by small-scale farmers.
In these two regions, the impacts of climate change are felt most severely, with severe droughts, torrential rains, and melting ice. In tropical areas, ecosystems are sensitive to temperature changes and highly dependent on rainfall. In the Andes, heatwaves weaken traditional crops like potatoes and quinoa. Farmers are sometimes forced to move their plantations to higher altitudes, destabilising the ecosystems of the less populated highlands and increasing competition for land. However, few alternatives are available to small-scale producers – who make up the majority in Peru – leaving them at risk of food insecurity and increased precarity.
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Dialogues économiques is a digital journal published by the Aix-Marseille School of Economics (AMU, CNRS, EHESS, Centrale Méditerranée). A gateway between academic research and society, Dialogues économiques provides all citizens with the keys to economic reasoning. Articles are published every two weeks.
Shocks in the tropical belt
Adaptation is crucial not only for people but also for institutions; economic analysis tools help guide public policies. However, many studies on weather shocks focus on developed countries. In these countries, data is provided annually, aligning with the single harvest season per year. This annual data allows for studying the temperate climates of Western countries effectively. But what happens in tropical regions where harvesting occurs throughout the year, without a defined annual schedule?
Article originally published in Dialogues Économiques on June 25, 2025.
References: Crofils, C., Gallic, E., Vermandel, G., 2025. "The dynamic effects of weather shocks on agricultural production". Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 130, 103078.
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